Caitlin Knowles Myers

Caitlin Knowles Myers

Visiting Professor of Quantitative Social Science • Dartmouth College

John G. McCullough Professor of Economics • Middlebury College

I am an economist and research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research who studies the forces shaping fertility and the causal effects of abortion policy on people's lives. I spearheaded the amicus brief signed by more than 150 economists in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization and testified before the U.S. Senate Budget Committee on the decision's economic consequences.

My current research tracks the ongoing effects of abortion policy on sexual behavior, births, maternal health, economic hardship, crime, and the physician workforce. I maintain the Abortion Access Dashboard and publicly available datasets on Open Science Framework. I am also increasingly focused on the broader determinants of fertility, including the causes of declining birth rates.

I grew up in rural West Virginia and small-town Georgia; I reflect on how that shaped my work and my approach to political divides in a TEDxMiddlebury talk.

View CV Contact

Research

Working Papers

Featured

Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T's 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly

with Ezekiel Hooper

NBER Working Paper 35310, 2026

The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors. The iPhone's 2007–2011 exclusivity on AT&T offers a natural experiment, identifying the effect of smartphone access from variation in AT&T's mobile broadband coverage. Poisson and synthetic difference-in-differences event studies imply that access to the iPhone reduced births by 2.0–9.0% at ages 15–19 and 1.5–7.2% at ages 20–24, with no evidence of a negative effect at ages 25–29 and declines again at ages 30–44. Overall, the early diffusion of the smartphone explains 12–53% of the 2007–2011 decline in the general fertility rate. National trends in time use and sexual behavior are consistent with the iPhone reducing in-person interactions, increasing pornography use, and reducing sexual frequency.

Poisson and synthetic difference-in-differences event study for women aged 20-24: flat pre-trends through 2007, then birth rates falling after the 2007 iPhone launch, reaching about -0.11 log points by 2011 (post-gestation SDID effect -0.075).
Bivariate choropleth mapping each county by the post-Dobbs change in driving distance to the nearest abortion facility and by appointment availability

The Road Not Taken: How Driving Distance and Appointment Availability Shape the Effects of Abortion Bans

with Daniel Dench & Mayra Pineda Torres

NBER Working Paper 33548, 2025

Post-Dobbs abortion bans increased births, with effects driven primarily by geographic distance to the nearest facility. A ban that increased the distance to the nearest abortion facility from 50 to 300 miles—the experience of the average resident of a ban state—raised births by more than 2 percent. These effects have not diminished over time despite expanded telehealth and logistical support.

Playing It Safe? The Effect of Abortion Bans on Sexual Behavior

with James Flynn & David Munro

NBER Working Paper 35333, 2026

Do abortion bans change sexual behavior? Using synthetic and standard difference-in-differences designs, we track gonorrhea rates and over-the-counter contraceptive purchases after Dobbs. Total bans reduced gonorrhea by 21% among people aged 15–44 and increased condom purchases by 5.4%—a response that tracks awareness of state policy rather than travel distance to providers, consistent with bans raising the perceived cost of unprotected sex.

Synthetic difference-in-differences event study showing condom purchases rising after total abortion bans take effect

Economics & Policy Journals

Featured

From Roe to Dobbs: 50 Years of Cause and Effect

Annual Review of Public Health, 2024

A comprehensive historical review examining state abortion policies from 1967 to 2016 and their effects on health, economic, and demographic outcomes.

Map showing state abortion policy prior to Roe v. Wade, with states colored by whether they repealed, reformed, or maintained bans

Medical & Public Health Journals

Data & Resources

I maintain several publicly available datasets and tools for researchers studying reproductive policy.

Featured

Abortion Access Dashboard

Interactive dashboard tracking driving distances to the nearest abortion facility for every county in the United States, updated as laws and clinic availability change.

Visit Dashboard →
Abortion Access Dashboard showing a map of driving distances to abortion facilities, a bar chart of travel hours by state, and destination city statistics

Abortion Facility Database

Comprehensive database of abortion service providers across the United States.

Access on OSF →

Appointment Availability Dataset

Tracks real-time appointment scheduling and wait times at abortion facilities.

Access on OSF →

Reproductive Policy Coding

Systematic coding and documentation of reproductive policy across jurisdictions.

Access on OSF →

Teaching

I teach courses on econometrics and causal inference, and supervise research workshops. Below are links to syllabi for the courses I've taught most recently.

ECON 211

Regression Analysis

Last taught: Spring 2025

"Regression analysis" describes the basic technique economists (and many other types of scientists) use to examine the empirical evidence for all of the interesting theoretical questions that we dream up. Multiple regression techniques are used to estimate the effects of multiple exogenous variables on a variable that represents an outcome of interest. In this course, you will be introduced to the fundamentals of regression analysis: how to design and estimate a model, how to interpret the results, and how to critically analyze the validity of the techniques that you and others choose.

Syllabus
ECON 311

Causal Inference

Last taught: Fall 2024

In this course we will cover powerful and sophisticated empirical methodologies social scientists use to implement the scientific method and test hypotheses about cause and effect. We will begin with an overview of randomized trials: experiments in the laboratory and field. We will then discuss alternate, "quasi-experimental," approaches that empiricists adopt when randomized trials are not feasible or ethical. Along the way we will cover differences-in-differences estimation, event study designs, instrumental variables, and regression discontinuity designs.

Syllabus
ECON 701-702

Economics Senior Thesis Workshop

Last taught: Winter–Spring 2026

The senior research workshop is composed of no more than eight students working independently on research projects during winter and spring terms. Each student will meet frequently with the instructor to discuss his or her project. In addition, the class will sometimes meet collectively for lectures on common issues and to allow students to present and discuss their research.

Syllabus

In the Media

I regularly share research insights with journalists and podcasters covering reproductive policy.

Featured

The Power of Not Quite Belonging

TEDxMiddlebury, 2025

From an Appalachian holler to an elite college, I reflect on how straddling different worlds—rural and urban, red and blue—can be a source of empathy and insight in an era of deep polarization.

Watch Talk →
Watch: The Power of Not Quite Belonging | Caitlin Myers | TEDxMiddlebury

Filter by Outlet

Articles & Appearances

Service

CeMENT Mentoring Workshops

Co-Director, 2025–present

American Economic Association program providing mentoring for women and nonbinary faculty in economics.

midd.data

Founding Director, 2020–2025

Middlebury's Initiative for Data and Digital Methods.

Academic Freedom Alliance

Founding Member

Non-profit organization dedicated to protecting faculty rights.